By Jay A. Fernandez

The Oscar-nominations announcement is hours away — Tuesday morning at 5:30 a.m. is Go Time. (And yes, I’ll be in the office early fielding “reaction calls” in my pajamas, like every year.)

So why does it feel so anti-climactic? Just as a college degree has become devalued in the last 20 years, so winning an Oscar has become slightly devalued — for the industry viewer, anyway — as the awards season has sprung 100 new heads in recent years.

By the time we get to the Academy Awards, are there really any surprises left? Really, very few. (Click here for Gregg Kilday’s look back at 1939’s 10 best picture nominees and his analysis of how times have — and haven’t — changed.)

In 2010, the lead acting categories perhaps have some slight wriggle room, but supporting kudos are locked away for Mo’Nique (”Precious”) and Christoph Waltz (”Inglourious Basterds”). Given the momentum of the SAG Awards and the Golden Globes, Jeff Bridges (”Crazy Heart”) and Sandra Bullock (”The Blind Side”) are heavy favorites for the top slots.

Kathryn Bigelow (”The Hurt Locker”) is solid for director, especially since she was just handed the DGA Award on Saturday night. And “Avatar” (James Cameron, Jon Landau) and “The Hurt Locker” (Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier, Greg Shapiro) are neck and neck for best picture. The “Locker” crew took the prize at the PGA Awards a week ago — which precedent shows does not guarantee it Oscar glory — and “Up in the Air” (Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman, Daniel Dubiecki) has fallen out of industry graces in the last month. Could “Precious” pull an upset? Sure. But not likely.

That leaves the screenplay categories for some suspense — and Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner are a lock for adapted for their “Up in the Air” non-collaboration.

For my money, the only real nail-biter is original screenplay. The WGA nominees, which will be decided Feb. 20, went a little haywire when they included “The Hangover” along with “Avatar” (James Cameron), “(500) Days of Summer” (Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber), ”A Serious Man” (Joel and Ethan Coen) and “The Hurt Locker” (Mark Boal).

It will be a genuine surprise if Quentin Tarantino’s “Basterds” script isn’t included in the final Oscar noms instead of the Mike Tyson-singing-Phil Collins comedy. And the screenplay for “Up” (Bob Peterson and Pete Docter) is a real possibility in the Coens or Cameron slot.

Which means, unlike the rest of the top eight categories, it’s a five- (or six-) way race, with each nominee carrying strong credibility.

Tarantino? He’s already won one for “Pulp Fiction,” but, boy, do his scripts crackle and sing.

Cameron? People rag on his dialogue, but that doesn’t sink the expansive creative vision expressed in the script.

Peterson and Docter? Four of the last five original Pixar screenplays have been nominated. And “Up’s” mostly silent first 15 minutes alone had viewers crying.

The Coen brothers? Nommed three times already and winners twice, in adapted (”No Country for Old Men”) and original (”Fargo”). “Man” may be fielding some inside-Hollywood static for its perceived stereotypical depiction of a besieged Jewish professor, but they are always contenders (because they’re fantastic writers).

Boal? New blood producing a fact-based, riveting portrait of men in battle in a film gobbling up all kinds of nominations and awards, including critics kudos for the script. (And I’d love to see a true journalist win.)

Neustadter and Weber? Well, the Academy sure does love the newcomer with the tangy genre subversion — see Alan Ball (”American Beauty”), Diablo Cody (”Juno”), Michael Arndt (”Little Miss Sunshine”), Dustin Lance Black (”Milk”), etc.

So while I’ll be glued to the nominations announcement and dutifully watching the awards show, I won’t truly be paying attention until original screenplay is on the stage. Because, let’s face it, that’s where the unpredictable magic blooms anyway.