By Jay A. Fernandez

Here, sleeper sleeper sleeper…

OK! I'm awake! I'm awake!

After last year’s unexpected boxoffice runs by Warner Bros.’ “Gran Torino” ($148 million domestic) and Fox’s “Taken” ($145 million) early in 2009, it’s tempting to look for potential surprise hits in early 2010.

By taking a strategic look at the industry’s offerings in the annual dumping ground of January to March, I’m going to — ahem — predict the potential gems peeking out of the mud. I know, I know — it’s a fool’s errand. But if “experts” like me didn’t do this sort of thing, what would you have to scream about?

So, behold: The Malcolm scale. The searing, classic image (above) from Stanley Kubrick’s “A Clockwork Orange” says many things. What it says to Sleeper Watchers is that a drowsy little film is waking up. (In some rare instances, to the point where you just can’t look away, dammit.) In other words: The more Malcolms, the money-ier.

The first quarter of 2010 will roll out more than three-dozen wide or semi-wide releases. But we’re going to look at what’s off the radar, left abandoned, or, through a combination of elements (release date, counterprogramming, trend bullseye), poised to go much bigger than it has any right to.

The field looks pretty thin, but something’s bound to pop. I’ve chosen eight candidates, which we’ll track as they roll out over the following months to see just how right I was.

And I cordially invite your second guessing: What do you think could end up being this year’s January Surprise? Remember — to quote a little droog — “Initiative comes to thems that wait.”