By Jay A. Fernandez

Tuesday morning the Producers Guild of America announced its Darryl F. Zanuck Picture Producer of the Year Award nominees, the equivalent of its Best Picture award. Here they are:

“Avatar”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Invictus”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“Star Trek”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

The PGA often matches the Academy in its noms — and this year both groups expanded to ten from five — but the PGA just as often steps away from Oscar with its winner.

Like the Academy, the PGA picked “Slumdog Millionaire” and “No Country for Old Men” in 2008 and 2007. But in 2006 it chose “Little Miss Sunshine” over “The Departed,” in 2005 it chose “Brokeback Mountain” over “Crash,” and in 2004 it chose “The Aviator” over “Million Dollar Baby.”

If we compare the PGA ten to those of the Broadcast Film Critics Association, which announced its picks for the Critics Choice Awards December 14, we notice that the producers swapped in “District 9″ and “Star Trek” for the critics’ “Nine” and “A Serious Man”:

“Avatar”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Invictus”
“Nine”
“Precious: From the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Does that mean anything? Mm, maybe. “Nine” has been kind of doomed (though only a fool would ever count a Harvey film out of best picture contention), and “A Serious Man” has seemed a little too fringe.

But three science fiction films up for a best picture Oscar? I’m all for breaking with tradition, but somehow I don’t see that holding up when the final Oscar ballots are sent around.

Regardless, give or take a film, that PGA list is what the Big Night is going to look like.