By Jay A. Fernandez

Now that 21 critics’ groups have weighed in, we have the tallies for four of the top awards-season prizes — best film, best director, best screenplay adapted and original (unless the group gave a single script nod).

(Here are some of the lists: New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association and London Film Critics Circle.)

What this means for the Oscars is (mostly) easy to divine.

Adapted screenplay and director have built up a solid consensus, with Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s adaptation of Walter Kirn’s novel “Up in the Air” nearly unanimous in the former category and “The Hurt Locker” helmer Kathryn Bigelow taking a vast majority of the prizes in the latter category. Reitman and Turner are virtual locks for the Oscar at this point, and Bigelow is looking very strong.

The critics were split down the middle on Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber’s “(500) Days of Summer” and Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds” in the original screenplay category. Tarantino has his faithful, and his screenplays are a delight, but he’s already got one (for “Pulp Fiction”).

Neustadter and Weber, on the other hand, are total newbies and threw their own delightful twist on a worn-out genre. The Academy loves the fresh voice come Oscar night, and Diablo Cody, Michael Arndt, Sofia Coppola and Alan Ball have statuettes to prove it.

The biggest head-scratcher is best picture. “The Hurt Locker” got more votes, but “Up in the Air” is clearly the more Academy-friendly film. It has greater scope, more fun, a wider range of praiseworthy elements — and Bigelow scored director nods from groups who determined “Air” the better picture.

What this tells me is that the top Oscar votes will actually be split: Bigelow for director (which brings the additional crowd-pleasing factor of bestowing the award for the first time on a female director), and “Air” for picture.

This happens every few years. In 2006, Ang Lee took the prize for “Brokeback Mounatin” while “Crash” won the picture prize. In 2003, Roman Polanski took the directing honor for “The Pianist” while “Chicago” took the top prize. In 2001, Steven Soderbergh won for directing “Traffic” while “Gladiator” won picture.

But perhaps the best predictive analog for this year is 1999, when Steven Spielberg won the prize for directing “Saving Private Ryan” while “Shakespeare in Love” took the picture win. Note the pattern when these awards are split: The edgier critical pick walks away with the directing prize while the more digestible, broader, mainstream offering gets the top slot.

This year will be no different. Or do you think I’m wrong?

Full tally after the jump:

By Jay A. Fernandez

An avalanche of critics awards fell over the weekend — from Los Angeles, New York, Boston and Washington, DC — and in some areas sharpened the Oscar-race picture.

A few of the likely acting nods have begun to coalesce, namely around supporting actress Mo’Nique for “Precious” and supporting actor Christoph Waltz for “Inglourious Basterds.” George Clooney is also looking rosy as a best actor winner for “Up in the Air.” (Best actress remains a wash at moment.)

Kathryn Bigelow and her latest, “The Hurt Locker,” took several of the picture and directing awards.

I tend to eyeball screenplay awards more than the others, as the talent on display in those categories generates all the other players’ contributions. Those potential winners are starting to gel, as well.

Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s screenplay for “Up in the Air,” adapted from the Walter Kirn novel, took more honors, this time from the L.A. Film Critics Assn. and the Washington DC Area Film Critics Assn. — the latter also awarded Reitman’s film picture of the year honors.

Meanwhile, the Boston Society of Film Critics gave its screenplay award to Joel and Ethan Coen for “A Serious Man.”

The New York Film Critics Assn. awarded the political farce “In the Loop,” written by Jesse Armstrong and Simon Blackwell, its prize. (A dark horse, “Loop” also got runner-up from the L.A. contingent.)

By Jay A. Fernandez

The National Board of Review named “Up in the Air,” written by Sheldon Turner and Jason Reitman, who also directed, its best film of the year this morning. So does that have any bearing on the film’s chances come Oscar time?

Not really. But we’ll pretend it does.

In truth, the NBR usually honors a film favored more by the critical establishment than the commercial or Academy-voting constituencies (”Moulin Rouge!,” “Finding Neverland,” “Good Night, And Good Luck.”). But in the last two years, it synced up and started picking Oscar winners: “No Country for Old Men” and “Slumdog Millionaire.” So perhaps three’s a charm.

But the truth is, Reitman’s film doesn’t need the help. Given its cultural timeliness, charm and good will, endearing performances and Oscar-bait thematic weight, “Up in the Air” is without a doubt the early lock for Best Picture.

Think I’m wrong?

By Jay A. Fernandez

“I’ve gone to plenty of bar mitzvahs here growing up, and I’ve seen my father receive awards in this room,” Jason Reitman said as he looked out over the buzzing international ballroom of the Beverly Hilton Hotel. “It’s a nice room.”

Sure, “Up in the Air” is personal to him, but the geography of the film’s Monday night premiere and afterparty were even more so.

Premiere ticket as AA boarding pass

“Right now I’m trying as much as possible to stop and enjoy the moment,” Reitman said. “It’s kind of like a wedding. Everyone suggests, ‘Stop and take it in,’ but it’s hard to do. Look at this room: They all just watched my movie in the Mann Village [Theater], my favorite movie theater on Earth.”

Even after a dozen screenings at festivals from Telluride to Rome, Reitman seemed genuinely gobsmacked by the L.A. premiere event and the hoopla spinning around his latest awards-beckoning effort. That, and meeting “Harold and Maude” star Bud Cort milling about the party. “That’s exciting in itself,” Reitman muttered.

By Steven Zeitchik

It's "Up in the Air" day at Toronto, which means Jason Reitman is being earnest about his process for making this airline-set dramedy and George Clooney is once again ubiquitious on the streets in and around Yonge and Bloor.

As the publicity engines started from Clooney, Jason Bateman and Reitman, it's becoming clear how this story of a jetsetting corporate downsizer whose only connections are the kind you make at airports (read the review here) is going to be positioned: as a layoff story that, like "Slumdog Millionaire" last year, reflects difficult social realities, but gently.

At the press conference Saturday, reporters asked and talent responded with stories of layoffs and firings.

"This is a film that's not about job loss but it touches on it," Reitman said, in one of several comments on the subject. "My only (prior) experience was…with percentages and numbers. In making this film I was confronted with the heart of it."

By Steven Zeitchik

Last year, one of the biggest hits of the fall took root with a simple studio date change. Warners moved "Harry Potter" from November to the summer, opening up a slot that Summit then pounced on for "Twilight." With interest in the book and R-Patz peaking — and a relatively quiet pre-Thanksgiving period for tween fare — that switch proved to be one of the savviest calendar moves of the year.

A similar game of musical chairs could have some far-reaching reverberations this year. This morning, Paramount moved "Shutter Island" off its October 2 date and into February. That took the movie out of awards contention (some who saw the trailer were doubtful of that kind of potential anyway, though we mostly liked it) and, critically for other studios, also opened up early October for another wide release.

Fox Searchlight responded by moving "Whip It," the Drew Barrymore-Ellen Page roller derby comedy, from October 9 to the "Shutter Island' date, which gives the film a somewhat wider berth. (It had been up against the buzzy camp-horror film "Zombieland," which overlapped somewhat with its audience, and now will go up against the Coen Bros. "A Serious Man," which doesn't overlap.)

One of the biggest surprises of the festival so far is Fox Searchlight’s “Juno,” Jason Reitman’s heartfelt follow-up to his debut feature “Thank You for Smoking.” That movie did so well that “Juno” was superstitiously presented at the exact same place and time as “Smoking” screened, only two years later. The movie, which follows a teenage girl played by Ellen Page as she accidentally gets pregnant, deftly navigates a line between laughs and drama. While nothing like Fox Searchlight’s sensation of last year, “Little Miss Sunshine,” the movie is emotionally similar, and it’s nothing like the other high-profile Oscar-bait movies that have so far been showing here such as“No Country for Old Men,” “Michael Clayton” and “Into the Wild.” With one of the most original scripts of the year, watch for screenwriter Diablo Cody’s stock to rise. Don’t be surprised for an Oscar campaign for Ellen Page and maybe for some of the supporting cast like Allison Janney. Even the music, by Kimya Dawson, stands out. The movie also has classic Michael Cera, and should hopefully benefit from his turning into a star off of “Superbad.” Cera has turned into one of the most unlikely sex objects in ages, and at the Fox Searchlight party in Toronto’s cool Distillery District, he was never alone for too long.

The Oscar buzz campaign began right after the screening, when the cast was on stage for a Q&A, even if it came from a biased questioner. “I wonder if you’ve written your acceptance speech for the Oscars,” asked one gentleman of Reitman, pictured. Reitman shook his head, embarrassed, laughing as he said, “George Dubiecki, the father of my producing partner Dan Dubiecki, ladies and gentlemen.” (Borys Kit)