By Jay A. Fernandez

The National Board of Review named “Up in the Air,” written by Sheldon Turner and Jason Reitman, who also directed, its best film of the year this morning. So does that have any bearing on the film’s chances come Oscar time?

Not really. But we’ll pretend it does.

In truth, the NBR usually honors a film favored more by the critical establishment than the commercial or Academy-voting constituencies (”Moulin Rouge!,” “Finding Neverland,” “Good Night, And Good Luck.”). But in the last two years, it synced up and started picking Oscar winners: “No Country for Old Men” and “Slumdog Millionaire.” So perhaps three’s a charm.

But the truth is, Reitman’s film doesn’t need the help. Given its cultural timeliness, charm and good will, endearing performances and Oscar-bait thematic weight, “Up in the Air” is without a doubt the early lock for Best Picture.

Think I’m wrong?