By Jay A. Fernandez

Now that 21 critics’ groups have weighed in, we have the tallies for four of the top awards-season prizes — best film, best director, best screenplay adapted and original (unless the group gave a single script nod).

(Here are some of the lists: New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association and London Film Critics Circle.)

What this means for the Oscars is (mostly) easy to divine.

Adapted screenplay and director have built up a solid consensus, with Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s adaptation of Walter Kirn’s novel “Up in the Air” nearly unanimous in the former category and “The Hurt Locker” helmer Kathryn Bigelow taking a vast majority of the prizes in the latter category. Reitman and Turner are virtual locks for the Oscar at this point, and Bigelow is looking very strong.

The critics were split down the middle on Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber’s “(500) Days of Summer” and Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds” in the original screenplay category. Tarantino has his faithful, and his screenplays are a delight, but he’s already got one (for “Pulp Fiction”).

Neustadter and Weber, on the other hand, are total newbies and threw their own delightful twist on a worn-out genre. The Academy loves the fresh voice come Oscar night, and Diablo Cody, Michael Arndt, Sofia Coppola and Alan Ball have statuettes to prove it.

The biggest head-scratcher is best picture. “The Hurt Locker” got more votes, but “Up in the Air” is clearly the more Academy-friendly film. It has greater scope, more fun, a wider range of praiseworthy elements — and Bigelow scored director nods from groups who determined “Air” the better picture.

What this tells me is that the top Oscar votes will actually be split: Bigelow for director (which brings the additional crowd-pleasing factor of bestowing the award for the first time on a female director), and “Air” for picture.

This happens every few years. In 2006, Ang Lee took the prize for “Brokeback Mounatin” while “Crash” won the picture prize. In 2003, Roman Polanski took the directing honor for “The Pianist” while “Chicago” took the top prize. In 2001, Steven Soderbergh won for directing “Traffic” while “Gladiator” won picture.

But perhaps the best predictive analog for this year is 1999, when Steven Spielberg won the prize for directing “Saving Private Ryan” while “Shakespeare in Love” took the picture win. Note the pattern when these awards are split: The edgier critical pick walks away with the directing prize while the more digestible, broader, mainstream offering gets the top slot.

This year will be no different. Or do you think I’m wrong?

Full tally after the jump: