By Jay A. Fernandez

I’ve been wanting to get this up since Thursday night, when the Writers Guild held its annual star-studded Beyond Words panel, but too many events piled up. The WGA’s awards-season closer turned out to be a bizarre laugh-riot that managed to skirt almost completely any discussion of the craft of writing.

In attendance were James Cameron (”Avatar”), Jon Lucas & Scott Moore (”The Hangover”), Scott Neustadter (”(500) Days of Summer”), Mark Boal (”The Hurt Locker”), Alex Kurtzman (”Star Trek”), Geoffrey Fletcher (”Precious”), Scott Cooper (”Crazy Heart”) and Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (”Up in the Air”). Missing were Nora Ephron (”Julie & Julia”), Roberto Orci (”Star Trek”), Michael H. Weber (”(500) Days of Summer”) and Joel and Ethan Coen (”A Serious Man”).

By Jay A. Fernandez

For anyone still looking for a cool Thursday night activity, Humanitas is presenting a killer writers panel to benefit the Writers Guild Foundation tonight.

Called “Writing in a Time of War,” the event features recently Oscar-nominated screenwriters Mark Boal (”The Hurt Locker”) and Alessandro Camon (”The Messenger”), as well as Kimberly Peirce (”Stop Loss”) and Evan Wright (”Generation Kill”). My buddy John Horn from the L.A. Times is moderating.

It starts at 6:45 pm at the WGA headquarters at 7000 West Third Street. And yes, there will be wine and cheese and dessert.

If that’s too hardcore for you, the WGF is sponsoring another event next Thursday, Feb. 11, on writing movie musicals. Leslie Dixon (”Hairspray”), Winnie Holzman (”Wicked”), Stephen Schwartz (”Wicked”) and Irene Mecchi (”The Lion King”) and Bill Kelly (”Enchanted”) are all scheduled to appear.

By Jay A. Fernandez

Tuesday morning the Producers Guild of America announced its Darryl F. Zanuck Picture Producer of the Year Award nominees, the equivalent of its Best Picture award. Here they are:

“Avatar”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Invictus”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“Star Trek”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

The PGA often matches the Academy in its noms — and this year both groups expanded to ten from five — but the PGA just as often steps away from Oscar with its winner.

Like the Academy, the PGA picked “Slumdog Millionaire” and “No Country for Old Men” in 2008 and 2007. But in 2006 it chose “Little Miss Sunshine” over “The Departed,” in 2005 it chose “Brokeback Mountain” over “Crash,” and in 2004 it chose “The Aviator” over “Million Dollar Baby.”

If we compare the PGA ten to those of the Broadcast Film Critics Association, which announced its picks for the Critics Choice Awards December 14, we notice that the producers swapped in “District 9″ and “Star Trek” for the critics’ “Nine” and “A Serious Man”:

“Avatar”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Invictus”
“Nine”
“Precious: From the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Does that mean anything? Mm, maybe. “Nine” has been kind of doomed (though only a fool would ever count a Harvey film out of best picture contention), and “A Serious Man” has seemed a little too fringe.

But three science fiction films up for a best picture Oscar? I’m all for breaking with tradition, but somehow I don’t see that holding up when the final Oscar ballots are sent around.

Regardless, give or take a film, that PGA list is what the Big Night is going to look like.

By Jay A. Fernandez

Now that 21 critics’ groups have weighed in, we have the tallies for four of the top awards-season prizes — best film, best director, best screenplay adapted and original (unless the group gave a single script nod).

(Here are some of the lists: New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association and London Film Critics Circle.)

What this means for the Oscars is (mostly) easy to divine.

Adapted screenplay and director have built up a solid consensus, with Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s adaptation of Walter Kirn’s novel “Up in the Air” nearly unanimous in the former category and “The Hurt Locker” helmer Kathryn Bigelow taking a vast majority of the prizes in the latter category. Reitman and Turner are virtual locks for the Oscar at this point, and Bigelow is looking very strong.

The critics were split down the middle on Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber’s “(500) Days of Summer” and Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds” in the original screenplay category. Tarantino has his faithful, and his screenplays are a delight, but he’s already got one (for “Pulp Fiction”).

Neustadter and Weber, on the other hand, are total newbies and threw their own delightful twist on a worn-out genre. The Academy loves the fresh voice come Oscar night, and Diablo Cody, Michael Arndt, Sofia Coppola and Alan Ball have statuettes to prove it.

The biggest head-scratcher is best picture. “The Hurt Locker” got more votes, but “Up in the Air” is clearly the more Academy-friendly film. It has greater scope, more fun, a wider range of praiseworthy elements — and Bigelow scored director nods from groups who determined “Air” the better picture.

What this tells me is that the top Oscar votes will actually be split: Bigelow for director (which brings the additional crowd-pleasing factor of bestowing the award for the first time on a female director), and “Air” for picture.

This happens every few years. In 2006, Ang Lee took the prize for “Brokeback Mounatin” while “Crash” won the picture prize. In 2003, Roman Polanski took the directing honor for “The Pianist” while “Chicago” took the top prize. In 2001, Steven Soderbergh won for directing “Traffic” while “Gladiator” won picture.

But perhaps the best predictive analog for this year is 1999, when Steven Spielberg won the prize for directing “Saving Private Ryan” while “Shakespeare in Love” took the picture win. Note the pattern when these awards are split: The edgier critical pick walks away with the directing prize while the more digestible, broader, mainstream offering gets the top slot.

This year will be no different. Or do you think I’m wrong?

Full tally after the jump:

By Jay A. Fernandez

If you’re looking for more juicy background on “The Hurt Locker,” screenwriter Mark Boal will be speaking at WGA headquarters next month as part of the Writers Guild Foundation’s great “Writers on Writing” speaker series.

The event is Wednesday, January 13 at 7:30 pm and non-WGA members can get in for $20. Film writer and critic F.X. Feeney is moderating, as usual.

Boal has been a journalist for a dozen years. As most people know by now, the germ for “Locker” came from an assignment he took on to embed with a bomb defusal unit in Baghdad. The limits of the single article provoked him to expand his experiences into the screenplay for “Locker.” His script has since been recognized by several critics groups as one of the best of the year, and it received a Golden Globe nomination Tuesday.

Boal’s reporting also provided the basis for Paul Haggis‘ “In the Valley of Elah,” an unjustly overlooked film that takes a Stateside angle on the effects that surviving danger and death in the field have on soldiers.

The WGF event seems like a great opportunity to ask Boal about his research methods and how to write films invested with real-world experience and real-world resonance. Boal also took on a producing role with “Locker” and maintained an unusual amount of control over the independent project.

Here’s a short video interview with Boal from THR’s recent round table in which he discusses the opening scene of “Locker” and what he was trying to achieve.

By Jay A. Fernandez

An avalanche of critics awards fell over the weekend — from Los Angeles, New York, Boston and Washington, DC — and in some areas sharpened the Oscar-race picture.

A few of the likely acting nods have begun to coalesce, namely around supporting actress Mo’Nique for “Precious” and supporting actor Christoph Waltz for “Inglourious Basterds.” George Clooney is also looking rosy as a best actor winner for “Up in the Air.” (Best actress remains a wash at moment.)

Kathryn Bigelow and her latest, “The Hurt Locker,” took several of the picture and directing awards.

I tend to eyeball screenplay awards more than the others, as the talent on display in those categories generates all the other players’ contributions. Those potential winners are starting to gel, as well.

Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s screenplay for “Up in the Air,” adapted from the Walter Kirn novel, took more honors, this time from the L.A. Film Critics Assn. and the Washington DC Area Film Critics Assn. — the latter also awarded Reitman’s film picture of the year honors.

Meanwhile, the Boston Society of Film Critics gave its screenplay award to Joel and Ethan Coen for “A Serious Man.”

The New York Film Critics Assn. awarded the political farce “In the Loop,” written by Jesse Armstrong and Simon Blackwell, its prize. (A dark horse, “Loop” also got runner-up from the L.A. contingent.)