By Jay A. Fernandez

Entertainment journalists often wonder what it’s like for filmmakers to run the gauntlet of press in the relentless promotional swell of a movie’s release.

“Up in the Air” director Jason Reitman — who earned a DGA nomination this morning — put together a video that answers the question.

Check it out. (Now I know why he asked to take my picture at the premiere party.)

By Jay A. Fernandez

Tuesday morning the Producers Guild of America announced its Darryl F. Zanuck Picture Producer of the Year Award nominees, the equivalent of its Best Picture award. Here they are:

“Avatar”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Invictus”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“Star Trek”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

The PGA often matches the Academy in its noms — and this year both groups expanded to ten from five — but the PGA just as often steps away from Oscar with its winner.

Like the Academy, the PGA picked “Slumdog Millionaire” and “No Country for Old Men” in 2008 and 2007. But in 2006 it chose “Little Miss Sunshine” over “The Departed,” in 2005 it chose “Brokeback Mountain” over “Crash,” and in 2004 it chose “The Aviator” over “Million Dollar Baby.”

If we compare the PGA ten to those of the Broadcast Film Critics Association, which announced its picks for the Critics Choice Awards December 14, we notice that the producers swapped in “District 9″ and “Star Trek” for the critics’ “Nine” and “A Serious Man”:

“Avatar”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Invictus”
“Nine”
“Precious: From the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Does that mean anything? Mm, maybe. “Nine” has been kind of doomed (though only a fool would ever count a Harvey film out of best picture contention), and “A Serious Man” has seemed a little too fringe.

But three science fiction films up for a best picture Oscar? I’m all for breaking with tradition, but somehow I don’t see that holding up when the final Oscar ballots are sent around.

Regardless, give or take a film, that PGA list is what the Big Night is going to look like.

By Jay A. Fernandez

Now that 21 critics’ groups have weighed in, we have the tallies for four of the top awards-season prizes — best film, best director, best screenplay adapted and original (unless the group gave a single script nod).

(Here are some of the lists: New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association and London Film Critics Circle.)

What this means for the Oscars is (mostly) easy to divine.

Adapted screenplay and director have built up a solid consensus, with Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s adaptation of Walter Kirn’s novel “Up in the Air” nearly unanimous in the former category and “The Hurt Locker” helmer Kathryn Bigelow taking a vast majority of the prizes in the latter category. Reitman and Turner are virtual locks for the Oscar at this point, and Bigelow is looking very strong.

The critics were split down the middle on Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber’s “(500) Days of Summer” and Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds” in the original screenplay category. Tarantino has his faithful, and his screenplays are a delight, but he’s already got one (for “Pulp Fiction”).

Neustadter and Weber, on the other hand, are total newbies and threw their own delightful twist on a worn-out genre. The Academy loves the fresh voice come Oscar night, and Diablo Cody, Michael Arndt, Sofia Coppola and Alan Ball have statuettes to prove it.

The biggest head-scratcher is best picture. “The Hurt Locker” got more votes, but “Up in the Air” is clearly the more Academy-friendly film. It has greater scope, more fun, a wider range of praiseworthy elements — and Bigelow scored director nods from groups who determined “Air” the better picture.

What this tells me is that the top Oscar votes will actually be split: Bigelow for director (which brings the additional crowd-pleasing factor of bestowing the award for the first time on a female director), and “Air” for picture.

This happens every few years. In 2006, Ang Lee took the prize for “Brokeback Mounatin” while “Crash” won the picture prize. In 2003, Roman Polanski took the directing honor for “The Pianist” while “Chicago” took the top prize. In 2001, Steven Soderbergh won for directing “Traffic” while “Gladiator” won picture.

But perhaps the best predictive analog for this year is 1999, when Steven Spielberg won the prize for directing “Saving Private Ryan” while “Shakespeare in Love” took the picture win. Note the pattern when these awards are split: The edgier critical pick walks away with the directing prize while the more digestible, broader, mainstream offering gets the top slot.

This year will be no different. Or do you think I’m wrong?

Full tally after the jump:

By Jay A. Fernandez

SAG Award nominations came out this morning, and I’m a little confused.

“Up in the Air” nabbed individual nods for its main three stars, George Clooney, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick. You’d think this would put the cast in pretty good contention for outstanding performance by a cast, as well. And yet, the SAG voters left it off the list.

Instead, the casts of “Precious,” “An Education,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “The Hurt Locker” and “Nine” filled those slots.

Number of individual nominations for each of these films:

“Locker”: one, Jeremy Renner, lead role

“Precious”: two, Gabourey Sidibe, lead role; Mo’Nique, supporting role

“Education”: one, Carey Mulligan, lead role

“Basterds”: two, Christoph Waltz, supporting role; Diane Kruger, supporting role

“Nine”: one, Penelope Cruz, supporting role

OK, so does anyone else see something fishy about the math here? No offense to any of the nominated films and actors, but huh? That makes less sense than the slapstick Susan Sarandon montage stuck in the middle of “The Lovely Bones.”

To recap: “Up in the Air” gets three — count ‘em — three nominations for cast members — more than any other film this year. But it does not rate in the ensemble cast category.

Bogus.

“An Education” is a fine film with fine acting. But its notices have been centered in their entirety on Carey Mulligan’s endearing turn — and justly so. So how does that film get more group-cast votes than the high-flying troika of “Up in the Air,” all of whom brought a unique and entertaining characterization to their splendidly meshed interactions?

Throw in Jason Bateman and J.K. Simmons and it’s no contest.

Anybody have an answer?

By Jay A. Fernandez

An avalanche of critics awards fell over the weekend — from Los Angeles, New York, Boston and Washington, DC — and in some areas sharpened the Oscar-race picture.

A few of the likely acting nods have begun to coalesce, namely around supporting actress Mo’Nique for “Precious” and supporting actor Christoph Waltz for “Inglourious Basterds.” George Clooney is also looking rosy as a best actor winner for “Up in the Air.” (Best actress remains a wash at moment.)

Kathryn Bigelow and her latest, “The Hurt Locker,” took several of the picture and directing awards.

I tend to eyeball screenplay awards more than the others, as the talent on display in those categories generates all the other players’ contributions. Those potential winners are starting to gel, as well.

Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner’s screenplay for “Up in the Air,” adapted from the Walter Kirn novel, took more honors, this time from the L.A. Film Critics Assn. and the Washington DC Area Film Critics Assn. — the latter also awarded Reitman’s film picture of the year honors.

Meanwhile, the Boston Society of Film Critics gave its screenplay award to Joel and Ethan Coen for “A Serious Man.”

The New York Film Critics Assn. awarded the political farce “In the Loop,” written by Jesse Armstrong and Simon Blackwell, its prize. (A dark horse, “Loop” also got runner-up from the L.A. contingent.)

By Jay A. Fernandez

The National Board of Review named “Up in the Air,” written by Sheldon Turner and Jason Reitman, who also directed, its best film of the year this morning. So does that have any bearing on the film’s chances come Oscar time?

Not really. But we’ll pretend it does.

In truth, the NBR usually honors a film favored more by the critical establishment than the commercial or Academy-voting constituencies (”Moulin Rouge!,” “Finding Neverland,” “Good Night, And Good Luck.”). But in the last two years, it synced up and started picking Oscar winners: “No Country for Old Men” and “Slumdog Millionaire.” So perhaps three’s a charm.

But the truth is, Reitman’s film doesn’t need the help. Given its cultural timeliness, charm and good will, endearing performances and Oscar-bait thematic weight, “Up in the Air” is without a doubt the early lock for Best Picture.

Think I’m wrong?

By Jay A. Fernandez

“I’ve gone to plenty of bar mitzvahs here growing up, and I’ve seen my father receive awards in this room,” Jason Reitman said as he looked out over the buzzing international ballroom of the Beverly Hilton Hotel. “It’s a nice room.”

Sure, “Up in the Air” is personal to him, but the geography of the film’s Monday night premiere and afterparty were even more so.

Premiere ticket as AA boarding pass

“Right now I’m trying as much as possible to stop and enjoy the moment,” Reitman said. “It’s kind of like a wedding. Everyone suggests, ‘Stop and take it in,’ but it’s hard to do. Look at this room: They all just watched my movie in the Mann Village [Theater], my favorite movie theater on Earth.”

Even after a dozen screenings at festivals from Telluride to Rome, Reitman seemed genuinely gobsmacked by the L.A. premiere event and the hoopla spinning around his latest awards-beckoning effort. That, and meeting “Harold and Maude” star Bud Cort milling about the party. “That’s exciting in itself,” Reitman muttered.

By Steven Zeitchik

As the smoke starts to clear at Toronto, there's one movie that can be seen through the haze.

"Up in the Air," Jason Reitman's tale of a globetrotting corporate hatchet man played by George Clooney, has taken off faster than (insert easy plane pun here), carrying on a tradition in which Toronto establishes an awards-season front-runner.

But that's pretty much all the festival has established: one front-runner. This year's fest, which ends Saturday, has looked a lot different from recent editions. In 2007, for instance, "No Country for Old Men," "Michael Clayton" and "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" were just some of the pics to begin their all-category runs.

This year should have seen even more front-runners, what with the Academy opening up the best picture race to 10 nominees. But Toronto didn't begin to answer the question of which films those might be. "The Academy is asking voters to fill out twice as many slots, and when you look at the pictures out there, you have to wonder where those movies are coming from," one consultant said.